Our Returns

2026 YTD Return (Close of Aug 11, 2026)
ThriftTrading
+16.50%
Buy & Hold
+10.19%
G Fund
+2.72%

After nearly three months of going nowhere, the S&P 500 broke to new highs, though it is now testing the ceiling that has capped every advance since late 2024. Sentiment has stretched along with price, reaching levels of optimism not seen in decades, while volatility has fallen to the low end of its multi-year range. The fundamental backdrop stays supportive, but elevated valuations and midterm-year seasonality point to a more cautious second half of August. Our mechanical, rules-based system captured the breakout and has produced a +16.50% year-to-date return, well ahead of buy-and-hold's +10.19% and the G Fund's +2.72%.

Average Annual Return (Since 2005)
ThriftTrading
+10.16%
Buy & Hold
+7.63%
G Fund
+2.93%

Our main goal is to maximize TSP savings during bull market cycles and protect capital during potentially unstable market periods. Using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis validated by a mechanical impulse system, ThriftTrading has averaged +10.16% per year since 2005, compared to +7.63% for buy-and-hold and +2.93% for the G Fund, outperforming buy-and-hold by +2.53% annually and beating it outright in 15 of 21 years. Calculating returns.

71.4%
Win Rate vs. Buy & Hold
15 of 21 years, 2005-2025
-13.28%
ThriftTrading Max Drawdown
Buy & Hold: -21.71%
0.73
Sharpe Ratio (ThriftTrading)
Buy & Hold: 0.43
1.58
Sortino Ratio (ThriftTrading)
Buy & Hold: 0.68

Sharpe and Sortino ratios calculated using the G Fund as the risk-free rate, 2005-2025. The Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside volatility only.

When We Underperform

Every number above includes our bad years, and we would rather point at them than have you hunt for them. Buy-and-hold has beaten us in 6 of 21 years: 2012, 2013, 2016, 2020, 2021, and 2025. Our worst relative year was 2012, when the system was whipsawed by a choppy market and we finished at -4.60% while buy-and-hold gained 11.80%. Our worst absolute year was 2022, at -13.28%, roughly matching buy-and-hold's decline.

What we did in those years is the same thing we did in the good ones: followed the methodology, said so plainly in the weekly newsletter, and made the next call by the same rules. No system that manages risk wins every year. The years it costs you are the premium; years like 2008, when we lost 7.56% while buy-and-hold lost 21.71%, are the payout. Twenty-one years of both are in the table below, and independently verified at TimerTrac. For how we think about being wrong, see our methodology.

“2022 was a rough one for all market timers. Hang in there, I love your analysis and I am very confident and comfortable with your recommendations.” — Cynthia, subscriber

Annual Returns and Running Averages

Year-by-Year Data

Annual return left of divider; running average right. All values are percentages.
Year G FundG Buy & HoldBH ThriftTradingTT
20054.40%4.40%7.79%7.79%21.79%21.79%
20064.93%4.67%13.35%10.57%15.25%18.52%
20074.87%4.73%6.88%9.34%9.32%15.45%
20083.75%4.49%-21.71%1.58%-7.56%9.70%
20092.97%4.18%20.11%5.28%23.30%12.42%
20102.81%3.95%12.32%6.46%14.54%12.77%
20112.45%3.74%-0.55%5.46%5.07%11.67%
20121.47%3.46%11.80%6.25%-4.60%9.64%
20131.89%3.28%18.63%7.62%12.54%9.96%
20142.31%3.18%5.07%7.37%22.73%11.24%
20152.04%3.08%0.20%6.72%13.07%11.40%
20161.82%2.98%7.04%6.74%4.71%10.85%
20172.33%2.93%14.32%7.33%16.51%11.28%
20182.91%2.92%-4.81%6.46%-0.17%10.46%
20192.24%2.88%18.56%7.27%21.42%11.19%
20200.97%2.76%13.36%7.65%12.69%11.29%
20211.38%2.68%10.50%7.82%7.23%11.05%
20222.98%2.70%-13.64%6.62%-13.28%9.70%
20234.22%2.78%15.95%7.11%16.07%10.03%
20244.40%2.86%10.38%7.28%12.40%10.15%
20254.44%2.93%14.67%7.63%10.38%10.16%
Average 2.93% 7.63% 10.16%
Best Year 4.93%'06 20.11%'09 23.30%'09
Worst Year 0.97%'20 -21.71%'08 -13.28%'22
Total Return +83.2% +319.9% +599.8%

The buy-and-hold benchmark reflects an equal 20% allocation across all five TSP funds, rebalanced back to equal weight at the start of each calendar year with no market timing in between. The G Fund is the Government Securities Investment Fund, which provides guaranteed principal and a fixed interest rate set monthly by the U.S. Treasury.

Growth of $100,000

Chart runs through 2026 YTD and includes a partial year not yet reflected in the year-by-year table averages.

Independently Verified
TimerTrac.com

Our signals are independently tracked and verified by TimerTrac.com, an independent third-party verifier of timing performance.