Our Returns

2026 YTD Return — Close of
ThriftTrading
+13.66%
Buy & Hold
+8.37%
G Fund
+2.11%
Our main goal is to maximize TSP savings during bull market cycles and protect capital during potentially unstable market periods. Using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis validated by a mechanical impulse system, ThriftTrading has averaged +10.15% per year since 2005 — compared to +7.52% for buy-and-hold and +3.04% for the G Fund — outperforming buy-and-hold by +2.63% annually and beating it outright in 15 of 21 years. Calculating returns.
71.4%
Win Rate vs. Buy & Hold
15 of 21 years, 2005–2025
-13.28%
ThriftTrading Max Drawdown
Buy & Hold: -18.67%
0.72
Sharpe Ratio (ThriftTrading)
Buy & Hold: 0.43
1.56
Sortino Ratio (ThriftTrading)
Buy & Hold: 0.67

Sharpe and Sortino ratios calculated using the G Fund as the risk-free rate, 2005–2025. The Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside volatility only.

Annual Returns and Running Averages

Year-by-Year Data

Annual return left of divider; running average right. All values are percentages.
Year G FundG Buy & HoldBH ThriftTradingTT
20057.10%7.10%9.80%9.80%21.79%21.79%
20064.90%6.00%12.70%11.25%15.25%18.52%
20074.78%5.59%7.08%9.86%9.32%15.45%
20083.75%5.13%-16.41%3.29%-7.56%9.70%
20092.75%4.66%19.11%6.46%23.30%12.42%
20102.74%4.34%11.99%7.38%14.54%12.77%
20112.45%4.07%1.20%6.50%5.07%11.67%
20121.42%3.74%12.13%7.20%-4.60%9.64%
20131.89%3.53%16.56%8.24%12.54%9.96%
20142.26%3.40%5.56%7.97%22.73%11.24%
20152.04%3.28%0.34%7.28%13.07%11.40%
20161.82%3.16%7.34%7.28%4.71%10.85%
20172.33%3.09%13.30%7.75%16.51%11.28%
20182.91%3.08%-4.63%6.86%-0.17%10.46%
20192.24%3.03%16.94%7.53%21.42%11.19%
20200.97%2.90%15.79%8.05%12.69%11.29%
20211.38%2.81%8.79%8.09%7.23%11.05%
20222.98%2.82%-18.67%6.61%-13.28%9.70%
20234.22%2.89%15.34%7.07%15.72%10.01%
20244.40%2.97%8.64%7.14%12.40%10.13%
20254.44%3.04%14.96%7.52%10.38%10.15%
Average 3.04% 7.52% 10.15%
Best Year 7.10%'05 19.11%'09 23.30%'09
Worst Year 0.97%'20 -18.67%'22 -13.28%'22
Total Return +87.0% +314.3% +597.7%

The buy-and-hold benchmark reflects an equal static allocation across all TSP funds, held without market timing or rebalancing. The G Fund is the Government Securities Investment Fund, which provides guaranteed principal and a fixed interest rate set monthly by the U.S. Treasury.

Growth of $100,000

Chart runs through 2026 YTD and includes a partial year not yet reflected in the year-by-year table averages.

Independently Verified
TimerTrac.com

Our signals are independently tracked and verified by TimerTrac.com, an independent third-party verifier of timing performance.